2019年北京阅兵式上展示的中国洲际弹道导弹。 Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
The United States pressed Beijing on two fronts this weekend, warning both of the near-term risks of military mishaps and of the looming dangers of a nuclear arms rivalry, prompting a vehement accusation from a Chinese general that Washington was stoking confrontation.
周末，美国在两个方面向北京施压，一方面警告短期内发生军事意外的风险，另一方面警告即将出现的核武器竞争危险，这导致中方一名将军强烈指责华盛顿煽动对抗。
In speeches from President Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, on Friday, and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on Saturday in Singapore, the Biden administration sought to draw China toward talks on the rising military perils.
在拜登总统的国家安全顾问沙利文上周五发表的讲话，以及国防部长奥斯汀上周六在新加坡发表的讲话中，拜登政府试图吸引中国就不断上升的军事危险进行谈判。
Mr. Austin also indicated that the United States would keep operating military ships and planes in international seas and skies near China despite recent close calls with Chinese forces, and also keep providing support to Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing sees as its own territory. Both are sore points with China.
奥斯汀还表示，美国将继续在中国附近的国际海域和空域出动军舰和飞机，尽管最近与中国军队险些发生冲撞。美国还将继续向台湾提供支持。台湾是一个自治的岛屿，北京将其视为自己的领土。这二者都是中国的痛点。
“We won’t be deterred by dangerous operational behavior at sea or in international airspace,” Mr. Austin told a gathering of military officials and experts at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual meeting in Singapore.
“我们不会被海上或国际空域的危险行动吓住，”奥斯汀在新加坡举行的年度会议香格里拉对话上对军事官员和专家们说。
Speaking in Washington, Mr. Sullivan laid out Mr. Biden’s ideas to deal with a world in which “cracks in our post-Cold War nuclear foundation are substantial.” Russia has been making more frequent, though usually vague, threats about tactical nuclear weapons and China is building up its nuclear arsenal. Mr. Sullivan said that the United States was modernizing its own nuclear weapons, but that it would not plunge into a race to build more warheads than Russia and China combined.
沙利文在华盛顿发表讲话时阐述了拜登的想法——如何应对一个“我们的后冷战核基础出现重大裂缝”的世界。俄罗斯对战术核武器的威胁越来越频繁，尽管通常含糊不清，而中国正在扩充自己的核武库。沙利文表示，美国正在对自己的核武器进行现代化改造，但它不会陷入一场要制造比俄罗斯和中国加起来还要多的核弹头的竞赛。
“We’re also ready to engage China without preconditions — helping ensure that competition is managed, and that competition does not veer into conflict,” he said.
“我们还准备在没有先决条件的情况下与中国接触——以便确保竞争得到管理，竞争不会演变成冲突，”沙利文说。
国家安全顾问沙利文周五在华盛顿发表演讲。他阐述了拜登总统的想法——如何应对“我们的后冷战核基础出现重大裂缝”的世界。 Drew Angerer/Getty Images
The tableau of two of Mr. Biden’s most senior officials focusing on the dangers of military rivalry with China illustrated the extent of this geopolitical rift, even as Washington and Beijing reopen discussion on trade and diplomatic issues.
拜登手下两名级别最高的官员集中讨论与中国军事对抗的危险，说明了这种地缘政治分歧的严重程度，尽管华盛顿和北京正在重启贸易和外交问题的讨论。
China’s recent economic woes were one factor prompting its top leader, Xi Jinping, to take a milder diplomatic demeanor this year, Orville Schell, director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society in New York, said in a telephone interview. “But I don’t think his underlying assumptions about the hostility of our relationship have shifted,” Mr. Schell said.
纽约亚洲协会美中关系中心主任夏伟(Orville Schell)在接受电话采访时称，中国最近的经济困境是促使其最高领导人习近平今年采取更温和外交姿态的一个因素。“但我不认为他对双方关系敌对性的基本假设已经改变了，”夏伟说。
Highlighting that tension, the Chinese military delegation at the Singapore meeting called a news conference after Mr. Austin’s speech to take issue with it.
出席新加坡会议的中国军事代表团在奥斯汀发表讲话后召开了新闻发布会，对奥斯丁的讲话提出质疑，突显了这种紧张关系。
Lt. Gen. Jing Jianfeng from the People’s Liberation Army told reporters that U.S. weapons sales and other support for Taiwan amounted to encouraging independence for the island.
中国人民解放军中将景建峰对记者表示，美国对台军售和其他支持相当于鼓励台湾独立。
“At the same time that the United States is calling for communications and exchanges, it is also harming China’s interests and concerns,” General Jing said. “The Taiwan issue is a core interest for China, and we will not brook any compromise or concessions.”
“美方一边呼吁要沟通交流，一边在损害中方利益关切，”景建峰说。“台湾问题事关中国核心利益，容不得任何妥协退让。”
国防部长奥斯汀（最右）和中国国防部长李尚福（最左）周五在新加坡举行的香格里拉对话上。 Caroline Chia/Reuters
Prospects appear distant for any U.S.-China accord on the issues that Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Austin raised — or even for deep discussion of them. China sees itself as the weaker side, and appears to believe that detailed agreements, whether on arms control or regulating military encounters near its shores, would only help the United States perpetuate its dominance. Opacity, in other words, can work in China’s favor.
中美就沙利文和奥斯汀提出的问题达成任何协议——哪怕深入讨论这些问题的前景似乎都很遥远。中国认为自己是弱势的一方，并且似乎认为详细的协议，无论是军备控制还是规范其海岸附近的军事冲突，都只会帮助美国保持其主导地位。换句话说，不透明可能对中国有利。
Beijing is especially angry about increased support for Taiwan, and sees withholding dialogue as a way to warn the United States, said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
美国德国马歇尔基金会印太项目主任葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)表示，北京对台湾得到的支持增加尤其感到愤怒，并将停止对话视为警告美国的一种方式。
“They want to get our attention,” she said, adding that Beijing may not see value in reviving military talks. “The Chinese — and this has been true for a long time — are really not interested in risk-reduction measures,” she said, “because they think that by maintaining some level of risk, we will be more cautious.”
“他们想引起我们的注意，”她说道，还表示北京可能看不到重启军事谈判的价值。“中国人——长期以来都是这样——对降低风险的措施确实不感兴趣，”她说，“因为他们认为，通过保持一定程度的风险，我们会更加谨慎。”
The Shangri-La Dialogue has in its two decades of operation become a venue for military officials from Washington and Beijing to rhetorically spar, but also to hold bilateral discussions aimed at lowering tensions. This year, though, the Chinese defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, declined to meet Mr. Austin.
在其20年的历史上，香格里拉对话已成为华盛顿和北京军事官员进行言辞交锋的场所，但也举行了旨在缓和紧张局势的双边讨论。不过，今年中国国防部长李尚福上将拒绝与奥斯汀会面。
The two shook hands during a brief encounter at the forum’s opening dinner on Friday. “A cordial handshake over dinner is no substitute for substantive engagement,” Mr. Austin said in his speech.
在周五的论坛开幕晚宴上，两人短暂握手。奥斯丁在演讲中说，“晚餐时亲切的握手不能代替实质性的接触。”
美国海军发布的一张照片，显示一艘导弹驱逐舰在4月例行过境台湾海峡。 U.S. Navy, via Associated Press
He also berated China for what he described as dangerous military maneuvers in international airspace. In late May, a Chinese J-16 jet fighter flew perilously close to a U.S. Air Force RC-135 reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea, according to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
他还谴责中国在国际空域进行危险的军事演习。据美国印太司令部称，5月底，一架中国歼-16喷气式战斗机在南海上空危险地接近美国空军的一架RC-135侦察机。
Beijing has returned to the table on some issues. China’s commerce minister, Wang Wentao, recently visited the United States, and Mr. Sullivan held talks last month with a senior Chinese diplomat. But the accumulated antagonism between China and the United States over security issues has been harder to overcome.
北京在一些问题上回到了谈判桌。中国商务部长王文涛最近访美，沙利文上个月与一名中国高级外交官举行了会谈。但中美之间在安全问题上积累的敌意更难克服。
The Chinese defense minister, General Li, who was appointed to his current position in March and will speak at the forum on Sunday, was put under sanctions by Washington in 2018 over buying Russian fighter jets and a surface-to-air missile system. China has said that penalty is the reason for his refusal to meet Mr. Austin. Pentagon officials say that it should not impede talks, and that avoiding or defusing potential crises is made harder by the Chinese military’s unwillingness to communicate.
李尚福于今年3月出任国防部长，他定于周日在论坛上发言。2018年，中国购买俄罗斯战斗机和地对空导弹系统，他因此受到华盛顿的制裁。中国表示，这一处罚是他拒绝会见奥斯汀的原因。五角大楼官员表示，这不应该妨碍谈判，而且由于中国军方不愿沟通，避免或化解潜在危机变得更加困难。
Zhao Xiaozhuo, a senior colonel in China’s People’s Liberation Army attending the Singapore forum, said Washington’s calls for “guard rails” about encounters between military aircraft and ships could be used as an excuse to legitimize American surveillance of China.
参加新加坡论坛的中国人民解放军大校赵小卓表示，华盛顿呼吁在军用飞机和船只相遇时设置“护栏”，这可以作为美国监视中国合法化的借口。
“Crisis management is a good thing,” he said in an interview, speaking in English. But U.S. military ships and planes were often conducting surveillance near the Chinese coast, he said. “The guardrails that the United States prefers, to my understanding, is to legitimize what the United States has done in its provocative behavior toward China.”
“危机管理是一件好事，”他用英语接受采访时说。但他说，美国军舰和飞机经常在中国海岸附近进行监视。“根据我的理解，美方偏爱的护栏是使美国对中国的挑衅行为合法化。”
中国人民解放军大校赵小卓周六在新加坡接受记者采访。“危机管理是一件好事，”他在接受采访时说。 Caroline Chia/Reuters
The administration’s efforts to draw China into arms control talks seem even less likely to succeed anytime soon.
拜登政府试图将中国拉入军备控制谈判的努力似乎更不可能在短期内取得成功。
Chinese officials have refused to discuss agreements limiting their nuclear weapons expansion. China has about 410 nuclear warheads, according to an annual survey by the Federation of American Scientists. The Pentagon estimates that number could grow to 1,000 by 2030, and 1,500 by around 2035, if the current pace were maintained. If Beijing nears that number, Washington’s two biggest nuclear adversaries would have a combined force of close to 3,000 nuclear warheads.
中国官员拒绝讨论限制其核武器扩张的协议。根据美国科学家联合会的一项年度调查，中国拥有大约410枚核弹头。五角大楼估计，如果保持目前的速度，到2030年，这一数字将增加到1000枚，到2035年左右将增加到1500枚。如果北京拥有的核弹头接近这个数字，华盛顿最大的两个核对手将拥有接近3000枚核弹头的联合力量。
Colonel Zhao, of the Chinese delegation in Singapore, said the U.S. projections of China’s nuclear arsenal had “no basis.” “The number of China’s nuclear warheads, or the quality of China’s nuclear weapons, is far away from that of the United States and that of Russia,” he said, while declining to give his own estimate of its size.
中国赴新加坡代表团的赵小卓大校表示，美国对中国核武库的预测“毫无根据”。“中国核弹头的数量，或者说中国核武器的质量，与美国和俄罗斯相差甚远，”他说，但拒绝透露自己的估数。
Even if China declines any treaty to cap its total nuclear warheads, agreements on transparency and building mutual trust could help limit the risks from its buildup, said William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a research group.
研究机构国际战略研究所的战略、技术和军备控制主管威廉·阿尔伯克表示，即使中国拒绝签署任何限制其核弹头总数的条约，关于透明度和建立互信的协议可能也有助于限制其增加核弹头的风险。
“Hotline agreements, notifications of launches of missiles — so whenever you’re doing a test or a space launch, notify,” Mr. Alberque said in an interview. “A first step would be: Why don’t you just tell us how many warheads you have?”
“设立热线，建立导弹发射通知制度——所以无论何时进行测试或太空发射，都要通知，”阿尔伯克在接受采访时说。“第一步应该是：你们为什么不直接告诉我们，你们有多少弹头?”
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纳闻|真实新闻与历史–「中英」美国誓言继续向台湾提供支持，并敦促与北京进行核谈判