「中英」为何说美中关系短期内恐难“解冻”

北京拒绝了美方提出的让中国国防部长李尚福与美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀在本周末的新加坡安全论坛上会晤的邀请。 Manish Swarup/Associated Press
For a few weeks, a flurry of meetings between American and Chinese officials seemed to signal that the two countries were trying to reduce tensions, after months of rancor and frozen high-level contacts raised concerns about the risk of a conflict, accidental or otherwise.
几周来，美中官员频繁会晤，似乎表明两国正在努力缓和紧张关系。这之前，中美互相埋怨、停止高层接触已有几个月，引发了人们对于发生冲突风险的担忧——无论冲突是出于意外还是其他原因导致。
First the U.S. national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, met with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, in Vienna, in May. Then the two countries’ top commerce officials held talks, the first bilateral cabinet-level meeting in Washington in months. China’s ambassador also arrived in Washington last week, finally filling a post that had been vacant since January.
最早是美国国家安全顾问沙利文今年5月在维也纳与中国级别最高外交官王毅见面。然后是两国最高商务官员在华盛顿举行几个月来的首次内阁级双边会谈。中国驻美国大使也在上周抵达华盛顿，终于填补了自今年1月以来一直空缺的职位。
But even as Beijing has returned to the table on some issues, it has also struck an even tougher posture, complicating the “thaw” in U.S.-China relations that President Biden had predicted last month. China has questioned Washington’s sincerity, pushed back on U.S. tech export controls by imposing its own restrictions and demanded the dropping of sanctions.
但北京在一些问题上重返谈判桌的同时，中国政府也拿出了一种更加强硬的姿态，让拜登总统上个月预测的美中关系“解冻”变得更加复杂。中国对华盛顿的诚意表示怀疑，并已通过采取自己的限制措施来回击美国的技术出口管制，还要求美国取消对中国官员的制裁。
Beijing rejected an invitation for China’s defense minister, Li Shangfu, to meet with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at a security meeting this weekend in Singapore, the Pentagon said this week. And last Friday, a Chinese jet buzzed an American spy plane over the South China Sea and flew directly in front of the plane’s nose, a maneuver the U.S. military called “unnecessarily aggressive.”
五角大楼本周表示，北京拒绝了美方提出的让中国国防部长李尚福与美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀本周末在新加坡的安全会议上会晤的邀请。上周五，一架中国战斗机在南中国海上空逼近一架美国侦察机，从美国飞机的机头前直接掠过，美国军方将这一行动描述为“不必要得好斗”。
“China tends to look at access to its senior leaders as a reward for acquiescence, rather than a tool for creating stability or resolving differences,” said Drew Thompson, a former U.S. defense official who is currently a fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. “You have to meet China on their terms in order to get a meeting.”
“中国往往把接触它的高级领导人视为对顺从的奖励，而不是创造稳定或解决分歧的工具，”曾在美国国防部担任中国问题官员的唐安竹(Drew Thompson)说，他现在是新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院的研究员。“想安排见面，就必须接受中国的条件。”
The Pentagon called China’s rejection of the meeting at this week’s Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore an example of Beijing’s “concerning” unwillingness to engage on military issues. Mr. Li, who was appointed to his position in March, has been under U.S. sanctions since 2018 over the purchase of military equipment from Russia. Pentagon officials have said these do not prevent Mr. Li from meeting Mr. Austin.
五角大楼称，中国拒绝让两国防长本周在新加坡举行的香格里拉对话会上见面，是北京不愿就军事问题进行接触的一个“令人担忧的”例子。李书福今年3月出任国防部长，自2018年以来，他因为从俄罗斯购买军事装备而一直受到美方制裁。五角大楼官员表示，这些制裁并不妨碍李书福与奥斯汀会晤。
But China has argued that sanctions against Chinese officials are an obstacle to improving the relationship. Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, said Washington should lift the sanctions against Mr. Li and “create favorable conditions for dialogue.” On Tuesday, she reiterated China’s position that Washington should “immediately correct wrong practices” if it wants to restore communication between the militaries.
但中国认为，制裁中国官员有碍两国关系的改善。中国外交部发言人毛宁称，华盛顿应该解除对李书福的制裁，“为中美两军对话沟通创造必要的氛围和条件”。她周二重申了中国的立场，如果华盛顿想恢复两军对话，就应该“立即纠正错误做法”。
China wants to meet with U.S. officials without what it sees as demeaning circumstances, said Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.
上海复旦大学国际关系学教授沈丁立表示，中国不想在其认为有失尊严的情况下与美国官员见面。
“We want to have a meeting based on mutual respect,” Professor Shen said. “We want the U.S. to lift the sanctions and to seek a compromise by mutual concession.”
“我们要在相互尊重的基础上举行会晤，”沈丁立说。“我们希望美方解除制裁，通过相互让步寻求妥协。”
In recent years, the U.S. has sanctioned Chinese officials and companies over allegations of human rights abuses, tech espionage and a range of other issues.
近年来，美国对一些中国官员和公司实施制裁，指控他们侵犯人权、从事技术间谍活动，以及一系列其他问题。
The U.S. and China have incentive to seek a steadier footing ahead of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in November in San Francisco, which will be closely watched for any meeting between Mr. Biden and China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Though both governments have said they want to arrest the downward spiral in relations that was set off in February when the U.S. downed a suspected Chinese spy balloon, their motives for doing so are not always aligned.
亚太经济合作组织年度论坛将于今年11月在旧金山举行，人们将密切关注拜登与中国领导人习近平是否会在论坛期间见面，因此美中都有动力在论坛召开前为双方关系寻求更稳定的基础。尽管两国政府都已表示希望停止双方关系的螺旋式下降，（今年2月美国击落了一个疑似中国间谍气球的飞行物，导致关系恶化），但双方改善关系的动机并不总一致。奥斯汀、商务部长雷蒙多和国务卿布林肯在参议院5月份举行的美中关系听证会上。 Andrew Harnik/Associated Press
U.S. officials want open lines of military communication with China. As the jet interception last week showed, the two countries’ militaries regularly patrol disputed areas such as the South China Sea, heightening the risk of an unintentional conflict. On Thursday, Mr. Austin said some of China’s activities in international airspace and waterways were “provocative.” (Beijing, for its part, blamed the United States for deploying aircraft and vessels too close to Chinese borders.)
美国官员想与中国建立通畅的军方沟通渠道。正如上周的军机拦截事件所显示的，两国军队经常在有争议地区（如南中国海）巡逻，增加了发生意外冲突的风险。奥斯汀周四表示，中国在国际空域和水域的一些活动具有“挑衅性”。（北京则指责美国飞机和船只的活动地点距离中国边境太近。）
Mr. Biden has talked about erecting “guardrails” to prevent U.S.-China competition from veering into a crisis. But Chinese officials have rejected that suggestion as an effort by Washington to contain and suppress China’s rise.
拜登建议设立“护栏”，防止美中竞争突然转向危机。但中国官员拒绝了这一建议，认为那是华盛顿遏制和打压中国崛起的努力。
“In the absence of dialogue, there are unacceptable risks to both sides,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. That includes, she said, the risk of “sleepwalking into a conflict over Taiwan.”
“不进行对话给双方都带来不可接受的风险，”美国的德国马歇尔基金会亚洲项目主任葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)说，包括“在台湾问题上稀里糊涂陷入冲突”的风险。
The U.S. also sees the potential for deeper cooperation with China on issues like mitigating climate change and relieving debt in poor countries, arenas where the two rivals are more likely to find common ground than in sensitive military and security issues.
美国也在减缓气候变化和减轻贫穷国家债务等问题上看到与中国进行更深入合作的潜力，这两个竞争对手在这些领域更有可能找到共同点，而非敏感的军事和安全领域。拜登总统建议给美中之间的激烈竞争设立“护栏”，防止无意中发生冲突。 Doug Mills/The New York Times
John Kerry, Mr. Biden’s climate envoy, said last month that China invited him to visit in the “near term.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said in April that she hopes to visit China, calling for a “constructive” and “healthy” economic relationship.
拜登的气候特使克里上月表示，中国已邀请他“近期”访问。财政部长耶伦也曾在今年4月表示，她希望访问中国，并呼吁建立“建设性”和“健康”的经济关系。
For China, restarting trade talks with the U.S. could help revive the domestic economy. China’s recovery this year, after three years of strict “zero Covid” restrictions, has been uneven, and growth in exports has slowed. Geopolitical tensions, as well as China’s focus on national security, have created an uncertain business environment.
对中国来说，重启与美国的贸易谈判能帮助国内的经济复苏。实行了三年严格的“新冠清零”政策后，中国今年的经济复苏并不均衡，出口增长已有所放缓。地缘政治紧张局势，加上政府把注意力放在国家安全上，导致了一个不确定的商业环境。
“We want to talk about how we can export to the U.S. without hurting U.S. national security, and how the U.S. can access the Chinese market while respecting China,” said Professor Shen of Fudan University.
“我们想讨论的是，如何在不损害美国国家安全的情况下向美国出口，以及美国如何在尊重中国的情况下进入中国市场，”复旦大学的沈丁立说。
Seeking to court businesses, China has welcomed a series of visits by prominent entrepreneurs, including Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, in March, and Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, this week.
为了向企业示好，中国欢迎了几位著名企业家访华，包括苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克3月份的访问，以及特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克本周的访问。
On Tuesday, China’s foreign minister, Qin Gang, used a meeting with Mr. Musk to convey Beijing’s talking points that a “healthy, stable and constructive” relationship between the U.S. and China benefited both countries, and the world. Mr. Qin said the two countries needed to know when to “step on the brakes” to “avoid dangerous driving,” and when to “step on the gas pedal” to promote cooperation.
周二，中国外交部长秦刚与马斯克见面时传达了中国政府的观点，那就是“健康、稳定、建设性”的中美关系对两国和世界有利。秦刚说，两国在发展好关系上需要知道何时“踩刹车”，避免“危险驾驶”，何时“踩油门”。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克本周在北京。在实行了三年的疫情防控措施后，中国一直试图表明已恢复正常。 Tingshu Wang/Reuters
China may also feel pressure to engage with the U.S. to push back against sweeping restrictions announced by the Biden administration in October to block Beijing’s access to critical U.S. technologies, such as semiconductors. China is incensed by Washington’s efforts to rally allies like Japan and the Netherlands to similarly cut off chip exports to China, moves that have hurt the Chinese economy.
拜登政府去年10月份宣布了阻止中国获得美国关键技术（如半导体）的全面限制措施，中国为抵制这些措施，也可能感受到了与美国接触的压力。中国对华盛顿动员日本和荷兰等盟友一起切断向中国出口芯片的努力感到愤怒，美国的做法已损害了中国经济。
In what analysts saw as a retaliatory move, the Chinese government last week announced a ban on certain companies buying products from Micron Technology, a U.S.-based microchip manufacturer.
中国政府上周宣布禁止某些公司购买美国微芯片制造商美光科技的产品，这在分析人士看来是一种报复行为。
“When China talks about finding stability in the relationship, it’s often more about getting the U.S. to relieve strategic pressure on China,” said Paul Haenle, a former director for China on the National Security Council under the Bush and Obama administrations. “They want the U.S. to stop with the sanctions, stop with the export controls.”
“中国谈寻求稳定关系时，往往更多的是让美国减轻对中国的战略压力，”曾在布什政府和奥巴马政府担任国家安全委员会中国事务主任的韩磊(Paul Haenle)说。“他们想让美国停止制裁，取消出口管制。”
Even with talks restarted, some issues may be difficult or impossible to resolve. Washington has repeatedly warned of consequences if China provides lethal aid to Russia, Beijing’s close strategic partner, in Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Bipartisan political moves in the U.S. to confront China could limit the space for Biden administration efforts at rapprochement, analysts say.
即使重启谈判，一些问题也可能很难或无法解决。华盛顿已一再警告，如果中国向其亲密战略伙伴俄罗斯提供用于乌克兰战争的致命武器，将会导致严重后果。分析人士说，对抗中国的两党政治行动可能会限制拜登政府和解努力的空间。
In a commentary last week, People’s Daily, the main newspaper of the Communist Party, said Ambassador Xie Feng’s arrival in Washington on May 23 was “a sign of détente that is pulling the strained relationship from the brink.”
中共主要报纸《人民日报》在上周发表的一篇评论文章称，谢锋大使5月23日抵达华盛顿，“将紧张关系从悬崖边上拉回来，让中美关系出现了缓和迹象”。
But the article also blamed American policymakers for damaging the relationship, saying improved relations hinged on whether Washington was willing to “refrain from damaging mutual trust, avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation, and take concrete steps to deliver on its promises.”
但文章也指责美国的决策者们破坏两国关系，称改善关系取决于华盛顿是否愿意“避免损害互信，避免误读误判，采取具体步骤兑现承诺”。