Gabriel AlcalaOn my first trip to China in more than three years, I awoke to an uncharacteristically brilliant blue Beijing sky. The forsythia and cherry trees were in full bloom, and the city was sparkling.
这是我三年多来第一次来中国，一觉醒来，看到北京一反常态的蔚蓝天空。连翘和樱花开得正盛，整座城市熠熠生辉。
That, for me, proved to be a metaphor for at least part of my weeklong visit this spring. On many levels, China is back. Offices were filled with workers putting in their typically long days. Executives mostly radiated optimism about their businesses. A robust pipeline of exciting start-ups suggested China will continue to be a leader in innovation. And the energy and drive that excited me on my many past visits were abundant.
在我看来，这至少是对我今春为期一周访华行程部分内容的一种隐喻。在许多层面上，中国又回来了。办公室里挤满了员工，投入到通常漫长的一天。高管们大多对自己的业务表示乐观。一批令人兴奋的初创企业源源不断涌现，表明中国将继续成为创新领域的领导者。在过去的许多次访问中，那种让我兴奋的能量和动力丰富而充足。
Yes, China has its share of economic challenges, particularly how much President Xi Jinping remains committed to maintaining the country’s progress toward a market economy. Often he seems to put more emphasis on control than on growth. I oversee significant investments in China, and these signals are a cause of concern.
是的，中国面临着经济挑战，特别是习近平主席仍然致力于保持国家向市场经济的进展。通常，他似乎更强调控制，而不是增长。我负责监督在中国的重大投资，这些信号令人担忧。
Yet while the Western press displays increasing skepticism, I believe China will continue to prosper. And as our biggest strategic rival, it will continue to use that prosperity to anchor its assertiveness on issues from the South China Sea to spy balloons and unfair trade practices.
然而，尽管西方媒体表现出越来越多的怀疑，我相信中国将继续繁荣。作为我们最大的战略对手，它将继续利用这种繁荣来巩固自己在一系列问题上的强硬姿态，从南海到间谍气球，乃至不公平的贸易行为。
Despite its ham-handed Covid response — particularly the extensive lockdowns — China’s economic performance has been far superior to our own. From the beginning of 2020 until the end of last year, China’s economy grew a cumulative 14 percent after adjusting for inflation, while ours has expanded by less than 6 percent.
尽管中国对新冠的应对显得很拙劣，尤其是大规模的封锁，但中国的经济表现远远好于我们。从2020年初到去年年底，中国经济经通胀调整后累计增长14%，而我国经济增长不到6%。
Growth is projected to reach 5.2 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent for us. And while we battle an inflation rate stubbornly above 4 percent, China’s prices will most likely rise by just 2 percent this year. As a consequence, interest rates remain low, helping encourage investment.
今年中国经济增长预期为5.2%，而我们预计为1.6%。当我们与4%以上的顽固通货膨胀率作斗争时，中国的物价今年很可能只会上涨2%。因此，它的利率保持在低位，这有助于鼓励投资。
To be sure, China’s rebound from Covid has been weaker than many expected. And the country has a significant jobless problem: 20.4 percent of people ages 16 to 24 looking for a job were out of work last month. Much of that stems from an economy that hasn’t quite revved up enough to absorb all of the roughly 10 million newly minted college graduates who enter the work force each year.
平心而论，中国的疫情复苏势头弱于许多人的预期。它的失业问题也很严重：上个月，在16岁至24岁的青年失业率达到20.4%。这在很大程度上是因为经济的增长速度还不足以消化每年进入劳动力市场的约1000万大学毕业生。
During my visit, Chinese officials took what felt like special pains to be welcoming. At the Davos-like China Development Forum, where American attendance was spotty but European business leaders were in abundance, Chinese officials read carefully scripted remarks, unfailingly emphasizing their commitment to sound economic policies as well as their openness to foreign investment and regulatory reforms.
在我访问期间，能感到中国官员似乎在极力表示欢迎。在类似达沃斯的中国发展高层论坛上，美国参会者寥寥无几，但欧洲商界领袖云集。中国官员宣读了事先精心准备好的发言稿，不断强调他们对健全经济政策的承诺，以及对外国投资和监管改革的开放态度。
Their positivity belied the evident tenseness. As my team and I visited with investors and businessmen, the disappearance of the prominent Chinese investment banker Bao Fan came up at almost every meeting, sometimes brought up by us, sometimes — defensively — by our Chinese counterparts. Security in China, always tight, seemed even tighter. I felt more aware of the omnipresent Chinese surveillance, with cameras and facial recognition technology everywhere. Just taking a short train ride required passports to be shown and scanned, both on entry and on exiting.
他们的积极掩盖了明显的紧张气氛。当我和团队拜访投资者和商人时，几乎每次都会提到中国著名投资银行家包凡失踪的事，有时是我们提出的，有时是我们的中国同行提出的——他们是在辩解。中国的安保工作一向很严密，这次似乎更严密了。我对无处不在的中国监控有了更多的了解，到处都有摄像头和面部识别技术。就算乘坐短途火车，出入车站时也需要出示护照并进行扫描。
More than in the past, Chinese investors and entrepreneurs are carefully noting — and following — every signal from the government and worrying that Mr. Xi might suddenly announce another capricious and unexpected intervention into the private sector. Starting consumer internet platforms has been de-emphasized; investment in new industries such as energy transition and artificial intelligence appears to be the priority.
与过去相比，中国的投资者和企业家更加仔细地注意和关注政府发出的每一个信号，并担心习近平可能会突然宣布对民营部门再来一次反复无常、出人意料的干预。淡化创办消费互联网平台的重要性；对能源转型和人工智能等新兴产业的投资似乎成了优先事项。
In at least some of these areas, China has achieved notable success. It controls 77 percent of the world’s battery manufacturing capacity, and last year nearly 60 percent of global electric vehicle sales were in China. The country produces more than 80 percent of the world’s solar panels, American tariffs notwithstanding.
至少在其中一些领域，中国已经取得了显著成功。它占到全球77%的电池产能，去年全球近60%的电动汽车销量来自中国。尽管美国征收关税，但中国生产的太阳能电池板占全球的80%以上。
As the days passed, the Beijing sky reverted to its more customary slate gray, and so, too, the initial brightness of my mood about the China of 2023 began to dim a bit. Underneath the self-confidence that I had always associated with China, I sensed a measure of uncertainty, largely as a result of the antagonism that many Chinese feel is emanating from Washington, which has led in turn to a feeling of resentment on the part of some Chinese toward the United States.
过了几天，北京的天空又恢复了惯常灰蒙蒙的样子，而我最初对2023年的中国持有的乐观情绪也开始黯淡了一些。在我一直感受到的中国自信之下，我也体会到一定程度的不确定性，这主要是由于许多中国人感到来自华盛顿的敌意，反过来这又导致了一些中国人对美国的反感。
As Mr. Xi underscores China’s role as an independent superpower, the preferences of Chinese consumers appear to be shifting. In the past, they favored marquee foreign brands, from Nike sneakers to BMW cars. Today, they are moving toward local brands, like Anta sneakers and BYD cars.
随着习近平强调中国是一个自主的超级大国，中国消费者的喜好似乎正在发生变化。过去，他们青睐从耐克运动鞋到宝马汽车等外国大牌。如今，他们正转向安踏运动鞋和比亚迪汽车等本土品牌。
My meetings in China are typically dominated by questions from me and my team. On this trip, our Chinese colleagues often turned the tables at least briefly, asking us what the United States was likely to do about issues such as Taiwan and potential investment limitations. Some declared that China was a kind of innocent victim of American power.
我在中国的会面通常以我和我的团队发问为主。然而在这次访问中，我们的中国同行经常反过来——至少是一度如此——问我们，美国在台湾和潜在的投资限制等问题上可能会做些什么。一些人宣称，中国是美国强权的无辜受害者。
These subtle differences were largely at the margin; at least from my interactions, the Chinese business community remains eager for American investment dollars and for continued commerce with us.
这些微妙的差异在很大程度上仍是细枝末节；至少从我经历的互动来看，中国商界仍然渴望美国的投资，并继续与我们进行贸易。
That said, the trade restrictions imposed by both President Donald Trump and President Biden have had an evident impact. Exports to the United States of items subject to a 25 percent U.S. tariff, from furniture to consumer electronics, are down by more than 20 percent from 2017.
尽管如此，特朗普总统和拜登总统实施的贸易限制措施已经产生了明显的影响。从家具到消费电子产品，对于那些美国征收25%关税的商品，中国的出口比2017年下降了20%以上。
The restrictions on the sale of sensitive advanced technology to China are also taking their toll. Chinese experts acknowledge that the country’s march toward the forefront of artificial intelligence will be impeded by the ban on purchasing the most advanced semiconductors.
限制向中国出售敏感先进技术也造成了损失。中国专家承认，禁止购买最先进的半导体将阻碍中国向人工智能前沿进军。
To its credit, in addition to toughness, the Biden administration is extending an olive branch. In a very thoughtful recent speech, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for “constructive engagement” with China — in effect, trying to achieve a win-win.
值得赞扬的是，除了强硬，拜登政府还伸出了橄榄枝。美国财政部长耶伦在最近一次经过了认真思考的演讲中，呼吁与中国进行“建设性接触”——实际上是试图实现双赢。
That’s an ambitious goal that will be best achieved by getting our own house in order. China has proved it can continue to grow faster than we do. We need to outcompete the country by raising our growth rate through initiatives like addressing our imprudently large budget deficit and our stultifying rules on the building of industrial facilities.
这是一个雄心勃勃的目标，要实现这个目标，最好的办法是把我们自己的事情处理好。中国已经证明，它可以继续以比我们更快的速度增长。我们需要通过一些举措来提高我们的增长率，比如解决我们不明智的巨额预算赤字和工业设施建设方面的僵化规定，从而在竞争中超越中国。
And we should buttress our human capital by increasing STEM graduates so that we can maintain our technological edge and by restructuring our immigration policies to attract talented people from all over the world and keep our most promising foreign students here.
我们应该通过增加STEM毕业生来支持我们的人力资本，以便我们能够保持技术优势，并通过调整移民政策来吸引世界各地的人才，并将我们最有前途的外国学生留下来。
Most important, we should not delude ourselves with the fantasy that China is going to fall under its own weight. The question, for America and its adversary, is whether this rivalry need be destructive or if a more prosperous, cooperative future is still possible.
最重要的是，我们不应该自欺欺人地幻想中国会被自己的重量压垮。对美国和它的对手来说，问题是这种对抗是否一定是破坏性的，抑或一个更加繁荣、彼此合作的未来仍然可能。
Steven Rattner是Willett Advisors的主席和首席执行官，曾担任奥巴马政府财务部的顾问。欢迎从他的个人网站stevenrattner.com获取他的最新文章并在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。
翻译：纽约时报中文网
点击查看本文英文版。
纳闻|真实新闻与历史–「中英」三年后再来到中国，我相信这里会继续繁荣