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「中英」中国经历新一波新冠感染潮,未影响生活常态

北京的一条旅游购物街,摄于上月。北京的一条旅游购物街,摄于上月。 Mark Schiefelbein/Associated Press
In December, China abruptly abandoned its draconian “Zero Covid” policies, battered by a surge of infections and rising public anger against lockdowns. Half a year on, Covid cases again are on the rise, but this time the nation appears to be determined to press on with normal life as the government focuses on reigniting economic growth.
去年12月,在新冠病毒感染激增、公众对封控的愤怒情绪日益高涨的压力下,中国突然放弃了严厉的“新冠清零”政策。半年后,新冠病毒感染病例再次上升,但这次,随着政府集中精力重振经济增长,中国似乎决定让正常生活继续下去。
Though other countries have long settled into such a pattern, it is a shift for China. Until late last year, its national leadership was still ready to lock down whole neighborhoods and districts, even cities, in a bid to stamp out what were sometimes just small clusters of cases.
尽管其他国家对这样做早就习以为常,但对中国来说,这仍是个改变。直到去年年底,为了消除感染,有时只是小型集群性感染,中国领导层仍然会对整个社区和城市部分区域,甚至整座城市进行封控。
The Chinese health authorities have reported a rise in Covid cases since April, especially from newer subvariants that are spreading across the world. Dr. Zhong Nanshan, a prominent doctor who was among the first to openly confirm in early 2020 that Covid could easily spread among people, estimated on Monday that by late June as many as 65 million people a week could become infected with the coronavirus across China. (That would be up from what he estimated at 40 million infections a week in late May. China no longer publishes regular official nationwide estimates of infections.)
据中国卫生部门发布的报告,自今年4月以来,新冠病毒感染病例有所增加,尤其是正在全球传播的新亚分支的感染病例。钟南山是在2020年初最早公开承认新冠病毒很容易在人群中传播的著名医生,他在周一估计,到6月底,中国这轮新冠病毒感染波峰可达每周最多6500万个病例。(高于他对于5月底将达到每周4000万例的估计。中国已不再定期发布官方估计的全国感染病例数。)
By comparison, after “Zero Covid” controls were set aside in December, new infections reached 37 million a day in China at their peak, according to estimates cited by Bloomberg.
据彭博新闻社引用的估计,相比之下,去年12月取消“新冠清零”控制措施后,中国感染新冠的人数曾在疫情高峰期达到了每天3700万。
Even if, as Dr. Zhong acknowledged, the pace of rising infections is laden with uncertainty, a rebound in cases was always likely, and many in China appear steeled to living with a background hum of Covid infections, and sometimes Covid deaths.
尽管像钟南山承认的那样,感染病例上升的速度充满不确定性,但疫情出现反弹的可能性总是存在,而且许多中国人似乎已准备好在时而发生新冠疫情的背景下生活,甚至准备接受新冠有时导致的死亡。
“People have become used to infections, and they see this as normal in the post-Covid era,” Lin Zixian, 36, who works for a technology company in Beijing, said in a telephone interview. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, still often wears a medical mask when he meets people indoors. But Mr. Lin said that he and other members of his family had stopped masking in most public spaces, as have many people in China.
“人们习惯感染了,也觉得这是后疫情时代的常态吧,”在北京一家科技公司工作、现年36岁的林子先在接受电话采访时说。中国领导人习近平在室内与人见面时仍然经常戴着医用口罩。但林子先说,他和家人在大多数公共场所已不戴口罩了,许多中国人也是如此。
“Many of my friends got infected last year and got infected again this year,” Mr. Lin said. “Personally, I’m pretty calm about the virus and pandemic.”
“我的许多朋友去年都阳了,今年又二阳了,”林子先说。 “我个人对病毒、疫情啊挺坦然的吧。”北京首都国际机场的旅客,摄于今年3月。北京首都国际机场的旅客,摄于今年3月。 Jade Gao/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Officials across China appear to be trying to prepare the population for a rise in infections without reintroducing the heavy controls that by late last year had exhausted public patience. Since abandoning its tight restrictions on domestic travel, the government has shifted to reviving growth and job creation. The jobless rate of about 20 percent among urban youth may appear more politically pressing than rising Covid numbers.
中国各地的官员们似乎正试图让民众对感染率上升有所准备,而不是再次采取严格的防控措施,去年年底,公众已对严格防控的做法失去了耐心。自从取消了对国内旅行的严格限制后,政府已转向恢复经济增长和创造就业机会。城市年轻人中约20%的失业率似乎比新冠病毒感染上升在政治上更为紧迫。
“After most people had caught the last wave, the intensity was gone,” said Dali Yang, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago who has been finishing a book on China’s handling of the pandemic.
“大多数人已在上一波疫情中感染过病毒,再次感染的严重程度不大,”芝加哥大学政治学教授杨大利说,他即将完成一本关于中国应对疫情的书。
He added that China now treated Covid as a “Class B” illness — not the most urgent category — and officials, though monitoring the latest increase in cases, “have also been trying to reassure the public, saying that the symptoms are relatively mild.”
他补充说,中国现已将新冠病毒作为“乙类传染病”对待,而不是最紧迫的那类,虽然官员们仍在对最近的病例增加进行监控,但“也一再表示,这波感染的症状相对较轻,努力让公众放心”。
Health officials in Beijing have recommended wearing masks on buses and subways, but it is not mandatory and quite a few passengers do not, especially younger ones. While the recent rise in cases may yet strain hospitals, many people appear more willing to endure the illness at home rather than heading to fever clinics.
虽然北京的卫生官员建议在公共汽车和地铁上戴口罩,但不是强制性的。很多乘客仍不戴口罩,尤其是年轻人。虽然近期感染病例增加可能会给医院带来压力,但许多人感染后似乎更愿意在家休息,而不是去发热门诊看病。
“Even if my son got Covid, I wouldn’t mind staying in the same room with him,” said Mr. Lin, the technology worker.
“即使是我的儿子得了新冠,我同他呆在同一个房间也还好,我不介意,”从事技术工作的林子先说。
For many younger patients, infection can mean a week or so with a fever and other symptoms. Over recent weeks, people have chronicled their symptoms on social media, often in a tone of mordant resignation.
对于许多年轻人来说,感染新冠可能意味着出现一周左右的发烧和其他症状。最近几周,人们已在社交媒体上描述自己的症状,通常用一种听天由命的尖酸口吻。
More worrisome are older people, many of whom have not had Covid and who may not have received a full round of vaccination shots. Up to three-quarters of Chinese people infected in the recent rise were not infected in the first wave, Dr. Zhang Wenhong, the director of the center for infectious diseases at Huashan Hospital in Shanghai and a major voice in China’s response to Covid, said in a recent interview with Chinese media outlets.
更令人担心的是老年人,他们中的许多人还没有感染过新冠病毒,而且也许没有全程接种疫苗。上海华山医院传染病中心主任张文宏医生是中国在新冠病毒问题上最主要的声音之一,他最近接受中国媒体采访时说,在最近这轮疫情中感染病毒的人中,有多达75%的人在第一波疫情中没有被感染。河南一家社区卫生中心走廊里等待看病的新冠病毒感染者,摄于今年1月。虽然近期感染病例增加可能会给医院带来压力,但许多人感染后似乎更愿意呆在家里自愈。河南一家社区卫生中心走廊里等待看病的新冠病毒感染者,摄于今年1月。虽然近期感染病例增加可能会给医院带来压力,但许多人感染后似乎更愿意呆在家里自愈。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
Nonetheless, the resurgence in cases “should not have a huge impact overall on economic activity and life,” Dr. Zhang said, according to Yicai, a Chinese business newspaper. “We should not go too far in taking pandemic prevent measures in response.”
尽管如此,据中国商业报纸《第一财经》报道,张文宏表示,新冠病毒卷土重来“对于我们整体的经济生活不应该造成巨大的影响,我们也不应该因此过度采取防疫的措施”。
Dong-yan Jin, a professor of virology at the University of Hong Kong who has tracked China’s response to Covid, concurred that many of those recently infected were likely to be older or physically frail people who were fenced off from the “tsunami” of infections late last year.
香港大学病毒学教授金东雁跟踪过中国对新冠病毒的响应,他同意张文宏的说法,最近这波疫情的感染者许多人很可能是年纪较大或体质不好的人,他们在去年年底的疫情“海啸”中受到保护,没有接触到病毒。
“The elderly were well protected in the period of the tsunami, because their families and carers tried their best to protect them,” Professor Jin said. “But now, the risks for them are high, because people are less vigilant.”
“老人在疫情海啸中受到了很好的保护,因为他们的家人和护理人员尽了最大努力保护他们,”金东雁说。“但他们现在面临的风险很高,因为人们的戒备已有所放松。”
China should increase vaccination rates, especially among old people; upgrade its homegrown vaccine to better protect against new variants; allow the introduction of internationally developed vaccines; and make anti-viral drugs cheaper and more available to Covid patients, Professor Jin said.
金东雁说,中国应提高疫苗接种率,尤其是在老年人中;对国产疫苗进行升级,以更好地抵御新的变异株;允许引进外国研发的疫苗;并让新冠病毒感染者更容易获得更便宜的抗病毒药物。
“Most people have recognized from their own experience that Covid is not a monster and is not so terrifying, and that’s actually positive,” he said. “But it is not true that Covid is gone and will never come again, so this message also has to be made clear to the public.”
“大多数人已从自己的经历中认识到,新冠病毒不是怪兽,也不那么可怕,这实际上是好事,”他说。“但新冠病毒已经过去,而且永远不会再回来的说法不对,所以应该将这个信息明确地告诉公众。”

Amy Chang Chien对本文有报道贡献。

储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼,在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前,他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他:@ChuBailiang。

翻译:纽约时报中文网

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纳闻|真实新闻与历史–「中英」中国经历新一波新冠感染潮,未影响生活常态