「中英」繁荣与危机：南昌见证中国楼市起与落

南昌一个建设中的住宅项目。中国的房地产热潮始于20世纪90年代后期，本世纪头年扩大到南昌等二线城市。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
The rows of towering buildings crowding the banks of the Gan River are a testament to the real estate boom that transformed Nanchang in eastern China from a gritty manufacturing hub to a modern urban center.
中国房地产行业的繁荣已将东部城市南昌从一个气质粗砺的制造业中心转变为一座现代都市，耸立在赣江两岸的一排排高楼就是这种转变的见证。
Now those skyscrapers are evidence of something very different: China’s real estate market in crisis, reeling after years of overbuilding.
如今，那些摩天大楼证明的却是一种截然不同的情况：中国房地产市场在经历了多年过度建设后正在陷入危机。
As China’s economy prospered the last two decades, Nanchang, the capital of Jiangxi Province, erected sweeping apartment complexes and gleaming office towers to meet the increasing demand for homes and workplaces. It pursued urban expansion with a motto that underscored its growth-at-all-costs approach: “Advance eastward, extend southward, expand westward, integrate northward, and prosper in the middle.”
在过去20年里，随着中国经济的繁荣，为满足对住宅和工作场所日益增长的需求，江西省会南昌修建了大面积的公寓楼群和明亮的办公大楼。南昌为实现经济增长不惜任何代价的做法体现在其追求城市扩张的口号上：“东进、南延、西拓、北融、中兴”。
But the country’s prolonged real estate slump has exposed cracks in cities, like Nanchang, where years of nonstop building have created too much supply. By one measure, nearly 20 percent of homes in Nanchang sit vacant — the highest rate among 28 large and midsize Chinese cities.
但中国房地产市场的持续低迷已将南昌等城市的问题暴露出来，这些地方多年来的不停建设已导致了供过于求的问题。有衡量标准显示，南昌20%的住房无人居住，空置率在中国28个大中城市中最高。
Nanchang illustrates the enormous challenges policymakers face in trying to revive China’s economy. During past downturns, Beijing turned to real estate and infrastructure spending to jump-start the economy. But this time, it won’t be an easy fix. Developers are saddled with debt, cities are teeming with empty dwellings, and local government finances are depleted from years of paying for Covid testing.
从南昌的情况可以看到，政策制定者在试图重振中国经济时面临巨大挑战。经济以前出现低迷时，中国政府靠投资房地产和基础设施建设来启动经济。但这次的低迷没有简单的解决方案。房地产开发商们已负债累累，全国各地的城市到处都是空置住宅，而地方政府的财政这几年下来已被核酸检测费用掏空。
Many of Nanchang’s newest apartments remain empty because developers ran out of money and did not finish building already-sold units. Some homeowners are refusing to pay mortgages until their apartments are finished, a nationwide act of dissent that has rattled the Chinese Communist Party.
在南昌，许多最新的公寓仍然空置是因为开发商没钱了，已售出的公寓无法完工。一些房主拒绝为尚未交付使用的公寓支付房贷，这种表达不同意见的做法已在全国范围出现，令中共感到紧张。
Over the last year, Beijing and local governments have unleashed incentives to lure home buyers back, urging banks to lend liberally and rolling back curbs that were put in place prepandemic to cool an overheated housing market.
中央和地方政府已在去年先后推出了吸引购房者回来的激励措施，包括要求银行放宽贷款审核，取消疫情前为冷却过热的房地产市场采取的限制措施。有衡量标准显示，南昌20%的住房空置。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
New-home prices in China’s 70 biggest cities rose in each of the first four months of the year, reversing a yearlong slide during the height of Covid restrictions. But the nascent rebound is losing steam. Growth in housing prices slowed in April.
今年前四个月，中国70个最大城市的新房售价均出现了上扬，扭转了新冠防控措施最严时期长达一年的下滑趋势。但反弹刚刚出现就在失去动力。今年4月份的房价涨幅已有所放缓。
And the recovery has not been evenly dispersed. Prices have roared back in bigger cities like Beijing and Shanghai. In second-tier cities, like Nanchang, the rebound has been more muted, and even nonexistent in smaller cities.
而且房地产市场的复苏情况并不均衡。北京和上海等大城市的房价已经回升。房地产市场的复苏在南昌等二线城市更为温和，在更小的城市则几乎没有出现。
China’s housing problems are more pronounced outside the top cities because overbuilding has been more pervasive in smaller cities, according to a paper from Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard, and Yuanchen Yang, an economist at the International Monetary Fund.
有论文显示，中国房地产市场的问题在大城市以外更明显，因为过度建设在中小城市更普遍。这篇论文的作者是哈佛大学经济学教授肯尼思·罗格夫和国际货币基金组织经济学家杨元辰。
Dr. Rogoff said that China’s housing boom was predicated on “fast growth forever,” but that in many smaller cities, the economy had not kept pace with the housing build-out.
罗格夫表示，中国的房地产繁荣是建立在“永远快速增长”的基础上的，但许多中小城市的经济增长速度并没有跟上住房建设步伐。
“China has been building real estate and supporting infrastructure at a breakneck pace for decades,” he said. “Eventually you run into diminishing returns.”
“几十年来，中国一直在飞速建设房地产和配套基础设施，”他说。“最终会出现收益递减的情况。”
China’s housing boom started in the late 1990s in the biggest cities before spreading to smaller urban areas like Nanchang in the 2000s. In 2000, China built around two million apartments. By the mid 2010s, it was building more than seven million apartments a year. Real estate quickly became the backbone of China’s economy, accounting for around a quarter of all activity.
中国的房地产繁荣始于20世纪90年代后期的大城市，后来在本世纪头十年扩大到南昌等中小城市。中国在2000年建设了约200万套公寓。到2010年代中期，中国每年建设的公寓已超过700万套。房地产很快成了中国经济增长的支柱，约占所有经济活动的25%。
The sector created jobs, supported the finances of local governments that rented land rights for new buildings and provided one of the few reliable investment options for ordinary Chinese people looking to accumulate wealth. As the economy became more reliant on real estate, Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, cracked down on debt-laden developers and declared that “homes are for living in, not speculation.”
房地产行业创造了就业机会，支持了地方财政（地方财政大部分来自出售盖新楼所需土地的使用权），并为想积累财富的普通老百姓提供了一种为数不多的可靠投资选择。随着经济越来越依赖房地产，中国最高领导人习近平开始严厉打击负债累累的开发商，他宣布，“房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的”。
In places like Nanchang, there was more construction than population growth alone could sustain. In the decade before 2021, the annual amount of housing construction in the city roughly doubled while the population increased 25 percent.
在南昌这样的城市，新建住房面积超过了仅靠人口增长所能维持的需求。在截止于2021年的十年间，南昌的住房建设面积大约翻了一番，而人口只增长了25%。农民在住宅开发区外的道路绿化带种菜。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
Kuang Wei, a real estate agent for existing homes in Nanchang, said prices in the more remote part of the city where he works had declined steadily, down 25 percent since 2019.
在南昌从事现房交易的经纪人匡威（音）说，他交易的房产位于城市远郊区，那里的房价一直在稳步下降，自2019年以来已经下降了25%。
He expects prices to fall further because so many people are trying to sell. Some are looking to upgrade to newer apartments, while others want to unload investment properties before an expected property tax is enacted. Mr. Kuang said around 80 percent of his clients still refused to cut prices, hoping that the market will rebound.
他预计房价会进一步下降，因为太多的人正在试图卖房。有些人想买更新的公寓以改善现有住房，还有些人则想在政府征收房产税前把作为投资的公寓卖掉。匡先生说，他的客户中仍有80%左右拒绝降价，希望市场将反弹。
“The market now is not like what it was many years ago,” he said.
“现在因为现在真的行情不是像之前一样的，”他说。
Nanchang’s 20 percent residential vacancy rate was higher than the 12 percent average among a nationwide sample, according to an August report by China’s Beike Research Institute. Soaring vacancies garnered a lot of attention because they confirmed that China’s real estate woes were more widespread than Beijing had let on.
据贝壳研究院去年8月发布的报告，中国28个大中城市平均住房空置率为12%，南昌20%的空置率高于平均水平。全国各地的高空置率引起了很多关注，因为它们证实了中国的房地产危机比政府透露的更为普遍。
After publication, Beike deleted the report, saying that it had collected information “incorrectly” and that the data “did not reflect the actual situation.”
贝壳研究院在报告发表后已将其从网上撤下，称“调研样本和程序不够规范”，数据“不能充分反映真实情况”。
Traditionally, Nanchang’s economy relied on manufacturing and construction. It has tried to bring in better-paying digital economy and technology industry jobs without much success.
传统上，南昌的经济依赖于制造业和建筑业。南昌曾试图引进薪酬更高的数字经济和技术行业工作，但不太成功。
Known as the city where Chinese Communist Party rebels first defeated the Nationalists nearly a century ago, Nanchang is surrounded by other cities that are more compelling options for offices.
这个城市以“南昌起义”闻名，近一个世纪前，中国共产党在这里发动武装叛乱，第一次打败了国民党军队。但作为办公地点的选择，南昌周围的许多城市更有吸引力。
Nanchang had the same number of buildings higher than 200 meters, or roughly 60 stories, as Beijing in 2022. However, Beijing’s population was three times larger and was the second-biggest city by economic output. Nanchang, by comparison, is 36th. In 2021, the commercial real estate firm JLL said the office vacancy rate in Nanchang was 40 percent.
南昌200米以上（约60层）的建筑物数量与北京2022年的相同。但是，北京的人口是南昌的三倍还多，而且从经济产出来看是中国的第二大城市。相比之下，南昌的经济产出在全国排名第36。商业地产公司仲量联行2021年发布的白皮书称，南昌的办公楼空置率为40%。房地产曾经是中国经济增长的支柱，但该行业的持续低迷已给国家带来困扰。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
Cinderella Fang, 28, was born and raised in Nanchang. When she was growing up, most apartments were in low-slung walk-up buildings, and there were no planned communities. She said the area near her childhood home had transformed into a sprawl of 30-story apartment complexes.
在南昌土生土长的辛德瑞拉·方（音）现年28岁。她小时候，大多数公寓都是没有电梯的低层建筑，没有现在这种经过规划的住宅小区。她说，她小时候住的地方周围已经变成了一大片30层高的公寓楼。
After going to a university in Beijing, Ms. Fang returned to Nanchang in 2019 hoping to find some work and possibly buy an affordable home. But she moved to Shanghai after a month, because the only job she could find in Nanchang was a marketing position that paid one-third of what she made in Beijing.
在北京读完大学后，方女士2019年回到了南昌，希望找一份工作，也许买一套负担得起的房子。但回到南昌一个月后，她搬到了上海，因为在南昌能找到的唯一工作是市场营销，薪水只有她在北京时的三分之一。
“The job market in Nanchang has not been very good,” Ms. Fang said.
“南昌那边的就业环境一直不太好，”方女士说。
Other transplants to Nanchang were drawn to the prospect of reasonably priced apartments and strong public schools — only to encounter developers who could not deliver the homes they promised.
对于其他搬到南昌的外地人来说，吸引他们的是还算合理的房价和很好的公立学校，结果却遇到了开发商无法交房的问题。
Shortly after her daughter was born in 2019, Andie Cao, who lives and works in Shanghai, bought an unfinished apartment in Nanchang. It was closer to her hometown in the Chinese countryside, and she planned to move after the developer was set to finish the project in late 2021.
安迪·曹（音）在上海生活和工作，女儿2019年出生后不久，她在离农村老家更近的南昌买了一套尚未完工的公寓。她曾打算在开发商原定2021年底交付后搬进去。
But the developer ran into financial problems and stopped construction in July 2021. After continuing to pay the mortgage for a year, Ms. Cao and other homeowners staged a mortgage boycott last July.
但开发商遇到了财务问题，公寓楼已在2021年7月停工。在继续支付了一年的房贷后，曹女士和其他房主于去年7月开始抵制还贷。
Ms. Cao said that the salespeople had also told her that the apartment was in one of Nanchang’s more established districts with good schools, but that it was actually zoned for a neighboring, less developed area on the city’s outskirts.
曹女士说，销售人员曾告诉她，她买的公寓位于南昌市一个条件不错的区，那里有很好的学校，但实际上，公寓所在小区按规划属于市郊一个比较落后的区。在南昌这样的城市，新建住房面积超出了仅靠人口增长所能维持的需求。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times
“Everyone was deceived,” she said. “Otherwise, why would there be so many people buying a home in the suburbs?”
“但是口头上跟你承诺的就讲得很好，大家都被骗，”她说。“不然的话怎么可能一个郊区大家还那么多人买。”
She said she was continuing to boycott, because the homes were still unfinished. She said the police had visited her parents to tell Ms. Cao to stop speaking out. The banks are now suing some of her boycotting neighbors.
她说，因为公寓仍未完工，她将继续抵制还房贷。她说，警察已找过她的父母，让他们叫曹女士不要公开站出来。银行现在正在起诉一些和她一起抵制还贷的邻居。
“It’s like an egg being smashed against a rock,” Ms. Cao said. “I didn’t expect this kind of thing to happen to ordinary people like us.”
“以卵击石简直就是，”曹女士说。“没想到会有这种事情发生在我们这种老百姓身上。”
Zou Shengji, a real estate broker in Nanchang, said the negative publicity about the unfinished apartments had left many potential home buyers “afraid and worried.”
南昌房地产经纪人邹胜吉（音）说，有关未完工公寓的负面消息让许多想要买房的人“会怕，会担心”。
During the Labor Day holidays in early May, usually a busy time for home sales, Mr. Zou’s team sold fewer than 20 apartments, he said. It sold triple that amount in the same period two years ago.
每年5月初的劳动节假期曾是房屋销售的繁忙时段，邹先生说，他所在的销售团队在那期间只卖出了不到20套公寓。他们在两年前的同一时段卖出的公寓是这个数量的三倍。
Potential clients say they will come see the apartments but don’t show up, he said. Clients are reluctant to buy because real estate feels too risky at the moment.
许多说要来看房的潜在客户爽约了，他说。客户不愿买房，因为觉得此刻的房地产市场风险太大。
“Many people are sitting on the fence now,” Mr. Zou said. “It’s possible that homes will be really difficult to sell in the future.”
“现在观望的人比较多，”邹先生说。“以后房子的话可能真的会不好卖。”

Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻亚洲商业记者，常驻首尔。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@daiwaka。

Claire Fu在首尔为《纽约时报》报道中国大陆的新闻。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@fu_claire。

翻译：纽约时报中文网

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纳闻|真实新闻与历史–「中英」繁荣与危机：南昌见证中国楼市起与落