「中英」G7峰会后中俄进一步加强联系，联手抵御西方

分析人士说，北京对七国集团公报之所以作出严厉谴责，源自它对以美国为首的联盟在亚洲遏制中国崛起的担忧。 Pool photo by Florence Lo
When Russian troops poured into Ukraine over a year ago, many experts foresaw a strategic windfall for China, with the United States distracted again by a war far from Asia. Now, Beijing is increasingly alarmed that the Western bloc backing Ukraine is entrenching itself in China’s neighborhood.
俄罗斯军队一年多前涌入乌克兰时，由于美国再次被一场远离亚洲的战争分散了注意力，许多专家预见中国将在战略上获得意外收获。现在，北京越来越担心支持乌克兰的西方集团正在中国的周边地区巩固自己的地位。
The leaders of the Group of 7 nations last weekend pledged more support for Kyiv and angered Beijing by challenging its claims to the South China Sea, vowing to resist economic coercion, and pressing China on human rights abuses in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong. Days after, Moscow and Beijing are reinforcing their relationship by holding security and trade talks, with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin of Russia leading a delegation of business tycoons on a visit to China.
七国集团(G7)领导人上周末承诺加大对基辅的支持，同时因为挑战中国对南中国海的主权主张、誓言抵制经济胁迫，以及就新疆、西藏和香港侵犯人权问题向中国施压而激怒了北京。几天后，俄罗斯总理米舒斯京率领一个商业大亨代表团访华，莫斯科和北京通过举行安全和贸易谈判来加强关系。
The contrast between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine receiving more arms guarantees from President Biden at the G7 and Mr. Mishustin seeking more economic support for Russia from China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, underscores how the deepening geopolitical divisions have been exacerbated by the war.
乌克兰总统泽连斯基在G7会议上获得了拜登总统提供更多武器的承诺，而米舒斯京则从中国最高领导人习近平那里寻求对俄罗斯的更多经济支持，这两者之间的对比凸显出这场战争加剧了不断加深的地缘政治分歧。
“China is ready to double down on its relationship with Russia following the G7 summit because the central theme of that summit comprised not only Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but also China and how the West should deal with it,” said Alexander Korolev, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales in Australia, who studies Chinese-Russian relations.
“中国准备在G7峰会之后进一步加强与俄罗斯的关系，因为该峰会的中心主题不仅包括俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，还包括中国问题以及西方应该如何应对，”在澳大利亚新南威尔士大学担任高级讲师、研究中俄关系的亚历山大·科罗廖夫说。
“The summit and Zelensky’s presence at it have marked a more apparent and deeper geopolitical divide between the West on the one hand and China and Russia on the other hand,” he added.
他还说：“峰会和泽连斯基的出席标志着西方与中俄之间的地缘政治分歧更加明显和深刻。”周日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在日本广岛举行的峰会上与七国集团领导人碰面。 Pool photo by Susan Walsh
President Biden sought to depict a less fraught atmosphere, predicting that there would be a thaw in relations with Beijing. But to China, the display of unity among the G7 democracies meeting on its doorstep likely plays into Chinese claims that the United States is trying to marshal its allies to provoke a conflict in the region.
拜登总统预测对华关系将会回暖，他试图描绘出一种没那么紧张的气氛。但对中国而言，在其家门口举行的G7民主国家峰会所表现出的团结可能支持了中国的说法，即美国正试图集结盟友在该地区挑起冲突。
As the Communist Party newspaper, Global Times, described it on Monday, the United States is trying to “replicate the ‘Ukraine Crisis’” in the Asia Pacific region. By doing so, the Chinese argument goes, Washington could wage a proxy war against China like it is with Russia, and later justify what would be a nightmare scenario for Beijing: the formation of an Asia-Pacific version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to contain China’s rise.
正如共产党报纸《环球时报》周一所言，美国正试图在亚太地区“复制‘乌克兰危机’”。中国的论点是，这样一来，华盛顿可以像对俄罗斯那样对中国发动一场代理人战争，然后支持一个对北京来说可谓噩梦的场景：成立一个亚太版的北大西洋公约组织来遏制中国的崛起。
The G7 summit was riddled with “uncomfortable optics” for China, said Lyle J. Goldstein, an expert on China at Defense Priorities, a think tank in Washington. Chief among them was the hosting of the event by Japan, a power that China harbors deep-seated historical animosity toward. Chinese state media has lashed out at Tokyo this week, accusing it of doing the “United States’ bidding” and inflating the “China threat” so that it can amend its constitution to build up its military again for the first time since World War II.
华盛顿智库“国防重点”(Defense Priorities)的中国问题专家莱尔·戈尔茨坦表示，G7峰会充斥着让中国“感到不安的视角”。其中最主要的一点是日本系东道国，而中国对它怀有根深蒂固的历史敌意。中国官方媒体本周猛烈抨击东京，指责它听命于“美国的吩咐”并夸大“中国威胁”，以便其修改宪法、自“二战”以来首次谋求军力的突破。
Mr. Goldstein said China saw Japan at the G7 as “colluding with the U.S.” to “bring Europe into the Taiwan issue,” a move he likened to “waving a red flag in front of a bull.”
戈尔茨坦说，中国认为日本在G7会议上“与美国勾结”，以“将欧洲拉进台湾问题”，他将此比作“在斗牛面前挥舞红旗”。
China finds itself in this predicament because its close partner, Russia, defied warnings from the West and invaded Ukraine. Despite the many problems that’s created for China, Beijing has continued to provide economic and diplomatic support for the Kremlin because of a shared desire to weaken U.S. global dominance.
中国之所以陷入这种困境，是因为它的亲密伙伴俄罗斯无视西方的警告，入侵了乌克兰。尽管这给中国带来了很多问题，但由于两国都希望削弱美国的全球主导地位，北京继续为克里姆林宫提供经济和外交支持。
Speaking at a business forum in Shanghai on Tuesday, Mr. Mishustin said Russia would continue fostering relations with China, which remains one of Russia’s only suppliers of technologies like microchips and one of its biggest energy customers.
米舒斯京周二在上海的一个商业论坛上发表讲话说，俄罗斯将继续加强对华关系，中国仍然是俄罗斯唯一的微芯片等技术供应商之一，也是俄罗斯最大的能源客户之一。
“We have expanded trade with the world’s rapidly developing economies. These words fully apply to our big friend, China,” Mr. Mishustin said, according to Russian state media, which reported that the two sides discussed expanding cooperation in transportation, agriculture and energy.
“我们扩大了与世界上快速发展的经济体的贸易。这话完全适用于我们的伟大朋友——中国，”据俄罗斯官方媒体报道，米舒斯京如此说道，报道还称，双方讨论了在交通、农业和能源领域扩大合作事宜。台湾金门，可以隐隐看到远处的中国大陆。七国集团领导人在对中国的南海主张和台湾的命运问题上进行权衡，从而激怒了北京。 Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times
Mr. Korolev, the University of New South Wales expert, said the war and Western sanctions have accelerated Russia’s economic reorientation toward Asia. That policy shift, which started more than a decade ago, has been met with concerns in Russia about developing an overreliance on China.
新南威尔士大学的科罗廖夫说，战争和西方的制裁加速了俄罗斯经济向亚洲的重新定位。该政策转变始于十多年前，在俄罗斯引发了对过度依赖中国的担忧。
“There are no more reservations,” Mr. Korolev said. “All the political barriers that existed before have now been removed, and Russia is no longer concerned about relying, or even depending, on China for its economic well-being.”
“现在不再有保留，”科罗廖夫说。“以前存在的所有政治障碍现在都被消除了，俄罗斯不再担心在经济上依靠甚至是依赖中国。”
The two countries are also expanding security ties. Chen Wenqing, the head of the Chinese Communist Party’s political and legal affairs committee — which oversees law-and-order issues — embarked on an eight-day visit to Russia on Sunday and held talks with the head of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, in Moscow.
两国还在扩大安全关系。周日，中共中央政法委（主管法制问题）书记陈文清开始对俄罗斯进行为期八天的访问，并在莫斯科与俄罗斯联邦安全会议秘书帕特鲁舍夫举行了会谈。
At a news conference in Beijing on Tuesday, a foreign ministry spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said Sino-Russian “cooperation has strong resilience and large potential” that would not be “disturbed or threatened by any third party,” an apparent reference to the United States.
周二在北京举行的新闻发布会上，外交部发言人毛宁表示，中俄合作“韧性强、潜力足”， “不受第三方干扰和胁迫”，这显然是指美国。
The tightening bond between the two powers has undercut China’s bid to cast itself as a credible mediator in the war in Ukraine. Last week, China dispatched a special peace envoy to visit European capitals such as Kyiv, Warsaw, Brussels and Moscow. The envoy, Li Hui, has so far failed to achieve a breakthrough as Ukraine has insisted on the full withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied territory. The Kremlin has rejected those terms, and it’s unclear if China would be willing to pressure Russia to relent given Beijing’s desire to preserve good relations with Moscow.
这两个大国之间日益紧密的联系削弱了中国将自己塑造成乌克兰战争中值得信赖的调解者的努力。上周，中国派出和平特使访问基辅、华沙、布鲁塞尔和莫斯科等欧洲国家的首都。由于乌克兰坚持要求俄罗斯军队从被占领土全部撤出，特使李辉迄今未能取得突破。克里姆林宫拒绝了这些条件，鉴于北京希望与莫斯科保持良好关系，目前尚不清楚中国是否愿意向俄罗斯施压，要求其让步。
Mr. Li has also been trailed by questions about his neutrality because of his perceived closeness to the Kremlin after serving as a former ambassador to Russia.
李辉曾任驻俄罗斯大使，被认为与克里姆林宫关系密切，因此他的中立性一直受到质疑。3月，乌克兰斯拉维扬斯克，俄罗斯火箭袭击现场冒出的烟雾。乌克兰战争扩大了中美之间的爆发点，将地区和欧洲大国也卷入进来。 Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times
“Although this experience in itself does not necessarily mean Li will be biased toward Russia in negotiations, it certainly does not dispel the impression that China wants to make sure its relationship with Russia stays intact following the negotiations,” said Cheng Chen, an expert in Chinese politics at the University at Albany-SUNY.
纽约州立大学奥尔巴尼分校研究中国政治的陈澄表示：“尽管这一经历本身并不一定意味着李辉将在谈判中偏向俄罗斯，但它肯定不会消除这样一种印象，即中国希望确保它与俄罗斯的关系在谈判后保持不变。”
Mr. Li is scheduled to visit Russia on Friday, according to Russian state media.
据俄罗斯官方媒体报道，李辉定于周五访问俄罗斯。
While the Chinese government has professed to be neutral over the war, at home, its overarching political narrative about the conflict is laden with sympathy for Russia and a widespread belief that China is the next target if Mr. Putin falls in defeat.
虽然中国政府宣称在这场战争中保持中立，但在国内，中国对这场冲突的总体政治叙事充满了对俄罗斯的同情，人们普遍认为，如果普京失败，中国将是下一个目标。
Mr. Goldstein, the expert at Defense Priorities, said that a senior Chinese expert on Russia told him during a talk in Beijing last week that from Beijing’s perspective, “if Russia loses, then the pressure on China will only multiply and become much more severe.”
“国防重点”的专家戈尔茨坦说，上周在北京的一次谈话中，中国一名资深俄罗斯问题专家告诉他，从北京的角度来看，“如果俄罗斯输了，那么对中国的压力只会倍增，而且会变得更加严重。”
In many studies by Chinese government and military analysts, Ukraine is depicted as not just the recipient of crucial Western military and intelligence support, but a pawn that the United States has lured into its broader strategy to critically weaken Russia, and ultimately China.
在中国政府和军事分析人士的许多研究中，乌克兰不仅被描述为接受了来自西方的重要军事和情报支持，而且被美国引入其更广泛的战略，从而严重削弱俄罗斯，并最终削弱中国。
“If the United States and NATO get the last laugh in their war of confrontation with Russia, then they will have finally formed a multilateral military power system of U.S.-Japan-Europe,” Liu Jiangyong, a prominent expert on China’s relations with Japan and other Asian countries at Tsinghua University in Beijing, wrote in a recent study. “Even if China becomes the world’s number one economic power, its international security environment may continue to worsen.”
“一旦美国及北约在对抗俄罗斯的战争中笑到最后，美日欧多边军事强权体系最终形成，”北京清华大学研究中国与日本及其他亚洲国家关系的知名专家刘江永在最近的一项研究中写道。“即便中国成为世界第一经济大国，中国的国际安全环境也可能更趋恶化。”