拜登总统经常表示，他不希望与中国开始一场新冷战。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesPresident Biden and his allies spent much of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, announcing new arms packages for Ukraine, including a pathway to providing F-16 fighter planes. They spent hours discussing strategy with President Volodymyr Zelensky for the next phase of a hot war started by Russia.
在日本广岛的七国集团峰会上，拜登总统及盟友将相当一部分时间用于宣布向乌克兰提供新的一揽子武器援助计划，包括提供F-16战斗机的路径。他们花了几个小时与泽连斯基总统讨论如何应对俄罗斯发动的热战的下一阶段。
So it was easy to miss Mr. Biden’s prediction on Sunday of a coming “thaw” in relations with Beijing, as both sides move beyond what he called the “silly” Chinese act of sending a giant surveillance balloon over the United States, only the most recent in a series of incidents that have fueled what seems like a descent toward confrontation.
因此人们很容易错过拜登周日关于与北京的关系即将“解冻”的预测，双方正在走出气球事件的阴霾——中国向美国上空投放巨大的监视气球一事被拜登称为“可笑”的行为，是使双方看似滑向冲突的一系列事件的最新一起。
It is far too early to say whether the president’s optimism is based on the quiet signals he has received in behind-the-scenes meetings with the Chinese government in recent weeks.
目前还很难确定总统的乐观是否基于近几周与中国政府密谈中接收到的隐晦信号。
Mr. Biden’s own aides see a struggle underway in China between factions that want to restart the economic relationship with the United States and a far more powerful group that aligns with President Xi Jinping’s emphasis on national security over economic growth. As this weekend showed, China is enormously sensitive to any suggestion that the West is organizing a challenge to Beijing’s growing influence and power.
拜登的助手认为中国有两个派系正在斗争，一方想要重启与美国的经济关系，而另一方——一个更强大的集团——认同国家主席习近平强调的国家安全高于经济增长。正如本周末所表明的那样，任何有关西方正在组织力量挑战北京日益增长的影响力和实力的说法，中国都极为敏感。
So if Mr. Biden is right, it may take awhile for the ice to melt.
因此，如果拜登是对的，那么坚冰可能需要一段时间才能融化。
Facing a new, unified set of principles from the major Western allies and Japan on how to protect their supply chains and their key technology from Beijing — contained in the meeting’s final communiqué — China erupted in outrage.
在峰会的最终公报中，西方主要盟友和日本宣布了一套新的、统一的原则，以求保护其供应链和关键技术不受北京影响，这引发了中国的愤怒。
Beijing denounced what it portrayed as a cabal seeking to isolate and weaken Chinese power. The Japanese ambassador to Beijing was called in for a reaming out, and China moved to ban products from Micron Technology, an American chip maker, on the grounds that its products posed a security risk to the Chinese public. It seemed like exactly the kind of “economic coercion” the world leaders had just vowed to resist.
北京谴责这是一个阴谋集团在寻求孤立和削弱中国力量。中国召见日本驻北京大使表达强烈不满，此外中国以美国芯片制造商美光科技的产品对中国公众构成安全风险为由对其产品下达禁令。这似乎正是世界多国领导人刚刚发誓要抵制的那种“经济胁迫”。
5月初，中国国家主席习近平。在周末发表的一份声明中，中国指责七国集团“阻碍国际和平”。 Florence Lo/ReutersMr. Biden often says he has no desire to see a new Cold War begin with China. And he points out that the economic interdependencies between Beijing and the West are so complex that the dynamic between the two countries is entirely different from what it was when he was delving into foreign policy for the first time as a newly elected senator, 50 years ago.
拜登经常表示，他不想看到和中国开始一场新冷战。他指出，北京与西方之间的经济相互依存关系如此复杂，以至于两国间的力量互动与50年前他作为刚当选参议员首次涉足外交政策时已经完全不同。
The harmony in Hiroshima over developing a common approach, and the blasts from Beijing that followed, suggested that Mr. Biden had made progress on one of his top foreign policy priorities despite underlying tension among the allies. Rather than dwell on their disagreements, the leaders of the major industrial democracies lined up their approach to China in a way that Beijing clearly saw as potentially threatening, some analysts noted after the meeting.
各国在广岛制定共同策略时的团结以及随后来自北京的抨击表明，拜登在他的一项首要外交政策优先事项上取得了进展，尽管盟国之间曾潜在着紧张关系。一些分析人士在会后指出，主要工业民主国家的领导人并没有纠缠于他们的分歧，而是统一了他们对中国的方式，北京显然认为这可能构成威胁。
“One indication that Washington would be pleased is that Beijing is so displeased,” said Michael Fullilove, the executive director of the Lowy Institute, a research group in Sydney, Australia.
位于澳大利亚悉尼的研究机构洛伊研究所执行主任迈克尔·富利洛夫说：“北京非常不满，这是让华盛顿感到满意的一个迹象。”
Matthew Pottinger, a deputy national security adviser to President Donald J. Trump and the architect of that administration’s approach to China, agreed. “The fact Beijing was so touchy about the G7 statements is an indicator the allies are moving in the right direction.”
特朗普政府的副国家安全顾问、负责设计对华政策的马修·波廷格对此表示同意。“北京对G7声明如此敏感的事实表明，盟国正在朝着正确的方向前进。”
Mr. Biden and the other leaders of the G7 — which includes Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan — wrote their first joint statement of principles about how they would resist economic blackmail and dissuade China from threatening or invading Taiwan, while trying to reassure Beijing that they were not seeking confrontation.
拜登和七国集团其他领导人——包括英国、加拿大、法国、德国、意大利和日本——起草了他们的第一份联合原则声明，他们将抵制经济讹诈，并劝说中国不要威胁或入侵台湾，同时努力向北京保证他们不寻求对抗。
The communiqué pressed China on the usual stress points, including its military buildup in the South China Sea and the widely documented human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other Muslims in Xinjiang. Four months after the United States quietly began distributing intelligence to the European allies suggesting that China was considering sending arms to Russia to fuel its fight in Ukraine, the document seemed to be a warning to Beijing against pressing its “no limits” relationship with Russia too far.
公报在常见的压力点上向中国施压，包括其在南海的军事集结以及广泛记录的对新疆维吾尔族和其他穆斯林的人权侵犯。四个月前，美国悄悄地开始向欧洲盟国分发情报，表明中国正在考虑向俄罗斯运送武器以协助其在乌克兰的战争，该公报似乎是在警告北京不要过分强调与俄罗斯的“没有止境”的关系。
Yet the democracies also left the door open to improving relations with Beijing by making clear that they were not attempting a strategy of Cold War containment against the world’s ascendant economy, even as they seek to cut China off from key technologies — including the European-made machinery critical to producing the most advanced semiconductors in the world.
然而，民主国家也为改善与北京的关系敞开了大门，明确表示他们不会试图对崛起的经济体采取冷战遏制战略，即使他们试图切断中国获得关键技术的途径——包括对生产世界上最先进的半导体至关重要的欧洲制造机器。
“Our policy approaches are not designed to harm China nor do we seek to thwart China’s economic progress and development,” the communiqué said. “A growing China that plays by international rules would be of global interest. We are not decoupling or turning inwards. At the same time, we recognize that economic resilience requires de-risking and diversifying.”
“我们的政策方针不是为了伤害中国，也不是为了阻碍中国的经济进步和发展，”公报说。“一个按照国际规则行事的成长中的中国将符合全球利益。我们没有脱钩或封闭自我。与此同时，我们认识到经济弹性需要去风险和多元化。”
拜登和七国集团的其他领导人就他们将如何抵制经济讹诈和中国与台湾之间的冲突撰写了他们的第一份联合原则声明。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times“De-risking” is the new term of art, created by the Europeans, to describe a strategy of reducing their dependence on Chinese supply chains without “decoupling,” a far more severe separation of economic relations. Mr. Biden’s team has embraced the phrase, and the strategy — meant to sound self-protective rather than punitive — has become a staple of the recent conversation about how to deal with Beijing. Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, talks of “building a high fence around a small yard” to describe the protection of key technologies that could bolster China’s rapid military buildup.
“去风险”是欧洲人创造的新术语，用来描述一种在不“脱钩”的情况下减少对中国供应链依赖的战略，而脱钩是一种更为严重的经济关系分离。拜登的团队已经接受了这个词，而最近，这个听起来是为了自我保护而不是惩罚的策略已经成为探讨如何与北京打交道的主要内容。国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文将对关键技术的保护时形容为“在小院子周围筑起高篱笆”，这些关键技术可以促进中国快速的军事建设。
But what looks like risk reduction to the United States and Europe can look like a nicely worded containment strategy in Beijing.
但在美国和欧洲看来是降低风险，在北京看来可能是措辞温和的遏制战略。
The consensus reached in Hiroshima came after what Michael J. Green, a former top Asia adviser to President George W. Bush, called “a string of diplomatic wins for the U.S. and losses for China.” Mr. Biden has worked behind the scenes to promote a rapprochement between South Korea and Japan, and is planning to integrate Japan into a consultative group on nuclear strategy and deterrence that was announced during a state visit last month by President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea. If successful, it would create a far tighter nuclear alliance in China’s neighborhood.
在广岛的峰会达成共识之前的一系列事件被前总统乔治·W·布什的亚洲事务高级顾问迈克尔·J·格林称为“美国的一系列外交胜利和中国的失败”。拜登一直在幕后推动韩日和解，并计划将日本纳入韩国总统尹锡悦上个月访美期间宣布的核战略和威慑磋商小组。如果成功，它将在中国周边建立一个更加紧密的核联盟。
“From Beijing’s perspective, this has been a week of even closer alignment among the other powers in the region with the United States,” said Mr. Green, now the chief executive of the United States Studies Center at the University of Sydney.
“从北京的角度来看，该地区其他大国与美国的关系在这一周变得更为密切，”现任悉尼大学美国研究中心首席执行官的格林说。
China pushed back hard. In a statement issued over the weekend, it accused the G7 of “obstructing international peace,” “vilifying and attacking China” and “crudely meddling in China’s domestic affairs.” The same day, it accused Micron of “relatively serious cybersecurity problems” that could threaten national security, the same argument the United States makes about TikTok and Huawei.
中国做出了激烈的回应。在周末发布的声明中，中国指责七国集团“阻碍国际和平”、“抹黑攻击中国”和“粗暴干涉中国内政”。同在这一天，中国还指责美光“在较严重网络安全问题隐患”，可能威胁到国家安全，这和美国在TikTok和华为问题上的说法相同。
Despite the common ground in Hiroshima, Mr. Biden’s decision to cancel the second half of his trip to the Pacific, including a stop in Papua New Guinea, so he could rush home to deal with domestic spending and debt negotiations, was taken as a setback in the competition with China.
虽然在广岛达成了共识，拜登取消此次太平洋地区之行的下半程，包括在巴布亚新几内亚的停留，以便赶回国处理国内支出和债务谈判，这一决定仍被认为是在与中国竞争中的一次受挫。
Now the question is whether, quietly, Mr. Biden can rebuild a relationship with Mr. Xi that seemed to be turning around last fall, after their first face-to-face meeting.
现在的问题是，拜登能否悄无声息地重建与习近平的关系，他们的关系自去年9月以来似乎有所改善——在两人进行了首次面对面交谈之后。
Mr. Biden referred to the spy balloon incident in interesting ways on Sunday.
拜登在周日以一种别有意味的方式谈到了间谍气球事件。
“And then this silly balloon that was carrying two freight cars’ worth of spying equipment was flying over the United States, and it got shot down, and everything changed in terms of talking to one another,” he said. “I think you’re going to see that begin to thaw very shortly.”
“然后还有这个可笑的气球，带着够装两车皮的间谍设备在美国上空飞过，然后被打下来，从那以后，两边的谈话就全变了，”他说。“我想应该很快能看到开始解冻。”
If there is a turnaround, it may result from the quiet talks that Mr. Sullivan held in Vienna this month with Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy official.
如果的确出现了转机，那可能是沙利文本月在维也纳与中国最高外交政策官员王毅密谈的成果。
The sessions were hardly warm, but in some ways they were more candid and useful than American officials had expected. Rather than simply a recitation of talking points, as is typical of encounters with Chinese counterparts, Mr. Wang spoke in more unscripted terms than usual, according to officials familiar with the talks. There was an airing of grievances on both sides that the Biden team hoped would help clear the air.
虽然会谈的气氛不算融洽，但某些方面看要比美国官员预想的更坦白和有效。据熟悉此次会谈的官员说，王毅没有像中方官员一贯的那样只是照本宣科地陈述看法，而是用一种相对即兴的方式讲话。双方都表达了各自的不满，拜登团队希望这能有助于消除疑虑。
There were long conversations in particular about Ukraine and Taiwan. Mr. Wang emphasized that China was not seeking conflict with Taiwan, apparently trying to assuage American officials who last summer feared that China might accelerate its plans to resolve its dispute over Taiwan by force.
双方尤其花了大量时间讨论乌克兰和台湾问题。王毅强调中国不寻求与台湾开战，这显然是在安抚美方，后者去年夏天担心，中国可能会加快其武力解决台湾争议的计划。
Mr. Wang raised the need to avoid precipitous actions surrounding elections in Taiwan early next year. Mr. Sullivan pressed the point that China’s own conduct was raising the temperature and increasing the risk of escalation.
王毅提出，需要避免明年初台湾选举可能引发的鲁莽行动。沙利文强调中方自身的行动在导致局势升温，增加恶化的风险。
Administration officials hope to return to a more regular dialogue with China, perhaps sending Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to China, and eventually rescheduling a trip to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, who canceled a visit after the spy balloon episode. There is talk of a meeting between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi in the fall.
拜登政府官员希望双方恢复定期对话，可能会派出财政部长珍妮特·L·耶伦和商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多前往中国，最终为国务卿安东尼·J·布林肯的访华重新安排日程，布林肯在间谍气球事件后取消了访华计划。双方谈及了拜登和习近平在今年秋天会面的可能性。
But the war in Ukraine will continue to shadow the relationship — and so will the course of the relationship between Moscow and Beijing, what one of Mr. Biden’s aides calls “the alliance of the aggrieved.” Yet for the moment, U.S. officials have taken solace that China has not, so far as they know, provided lethal weapons to Russia despite President Vladimir V. Putin’s need for armaments.
然而俄乌战争——以及莫斯科与北京的关系走向——将继续给美中关系蒙上阴影，布林肯的助手称中俄建立了一种“难兄难弟的联盟”。不过，尽管普京总统急需武器装备，中国到目前为止还没有向俄罗斯提供致命性武器——至少从已知的情况看是这样，这让美国官员感到欣慰。
Peter Baker是时报首席白宫记者，为时报和《华盛顿邮报》报道了五位美国总统的新闻。他还著有七本书，最新的一本是与Susan Glasser合著的《The Divider: Trump in the White House, 2017-2021》。欢迎在Twitter和Faceboook上关注他。
David E. Sanger是白宫和国家安全记者。他在时报任职38年，参与的三个团队获得了普利策奖，最近一次是在2017年获得国际报道奖。他最新出版的一本书是《完美武器：网络时代的战争、破坏和恐惧》(The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age) 。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。
翻译：纽约时报中文网
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