「中英」G7峰会开幕：聚焦乌克兰、中美关系和AI

周三，拜登总统飞离马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地，前往日本广岛参加七国集团峰会。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times
President Biden began his foreshortened Asia trip on Thursday in Hiroshima, a city symbolic of the danger of nuclear devastation, and prepared for discussions with his closest allies on two crucial issues: how to better arm Ukraine as it enters its counteroffensive against the Russian invaders, and how to slow, or halt, the downward spiral in relations with China.
周四，拜登总统在象征着核毁灭危险的广岛开始了他缩短的亚洲之行，并准备与最亲密的盟友就两大关键议题展开磋商：在乌克兰开始对俄罗斯侵略者进行反攻之际，如何更好地对其进行武装；还有就是如何减缓或停止对华关系的螺旋式下降。
Both are now familiar topics to the leaders of the Group of 7 nations, who have grown far tighter, and have remained surprisingly unified, since Russia began its assault on Ukraine 15 months ago. But at some point over three days of discussions, the G7 leaders are also expected to venture into new territory: the first conversations among the world’s largest democratic economies about a common approach to regulating the use of generative artificial intelligence programs like GPT-4.
对七国集团领导人来说，这两大议题他们现在都再熟悉不过，自15个月前俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，该集团的紧密关系远胜昔日，并在立场上保持了出奇的团结。但在为期三天的会谈中，七国集团领导人预计还将探讨新兴领域：这些全球最大的民主经济体将首次就GPT-4等生成式人工智能程序的通用规范交换意见。
Artificial intelligence was not on the early agenda as Prime Minister Fumio Kishida invited the other six leaders — joined by Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and, via video or in person, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine — to the Japanese prefecture where he got his political start.
日本首相岸田文雄当初邀请其他六国领导人以及印度总理莫迪和乌克兰总统泽连斯基（后者将通过视频连线或亲自到场）来到他政治生涯的起点广岛县时，人工智能并不在峰会最初设定的议程上。
But as the new artificial intelligence language model from OpenAI made nations around the world focus for the first time on the possibilities for disinformation, chaos and the physical destruction of critical infrastructure, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, began calling counterparts to seek a common discussion.
但随着OpenAI的新人工智能语言模型使得世界各国不得不首次正视虚假信息传播、混乱和现实中关键基础设施毁坏的可能性，拜登的国家安全顾问沙利文开始给各国对等官员打电话，寻求就此议题展开共同讨论。周二，OpenAI首席执行官山姆·奥尔特曼在华盛顿作证。 Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times
It is far from clear that this group of leaders — the G7 also includes Germany, Britain, France, Canada and Italy — can sustain a conversation on a technology that appeared to burst on the scene so quickly, even if it was years in the making. Past efforts to get the group to take up far more straightforward cybersecurity issues usually descended into platitudes about “public-private partnerships,” and there has never been serious discussion of rules to guide the use of offensive cyberweapons.
目前远不清楚七国集团（还包括德国、英国、法国、加拿大和意大利）领导人能否就此技术进行深入对话，尽管酝酿多年，但该技术的登场似乎突如其来。以往让这些领导人关注更为直白明确的网络安全议题的努力，往往沦为关于“政府与社会资本合作”的老生常谈，而且也从未就攻击性网络武器的使用指导规则展开认真讨论。
American officials say that in the case of chatbots, even a vague foundational discussion may help in establishing some shared principles: that the corporations that bring products using the large-language models will be primarily responsible for their safety, and that there must be transparency rules that make it clear what kind of data each system was trained on. That will enable lower-level aides to discuss details of what those first regulations would look like, the officials said.
美国官员表示，针对聊天机器人的议题，哪怕是含糊笼统的初步讨论可能也会有助于建立一些通用原则：让那些在产品中运用大语言模型的大企业对产品安全负起主要责任，同时还必须设立透明度规则，对训练每个系统所采用的数据做出公示。官员们表示，如此一来，较低级别的助手才能商讨初始监管规定的框架细节。
But as the G7 leaders convene starting on Friday, it will be Ukraine that will dominate the conversation, at a critical moment for Mr. Zelensky, for Ukraine and for the core Western democracies now seized with an urgent mission of bringing about what Mr. Biden calls the “strategic defeat of Russia in Ukraine.”
但是，当七国集团领导人会议于周五召开之际，乌克兰问题将成为主角。在这个紧要关头，泽连斯基、乌克兰以及西方核心民主国家正肩负着一项紧迫使命，那就是实现拜登所谓的“俄罗斯在乌克兰的战略失败”。
Mr. Biden often says that Russia is already defeated. But the fear permeating the seven large democracies here is that unless the counteroffensive proves highly successful, Ukraine will settle into a bloody, frozen conflict in which the best hope would be an armistice, reminiscent of the one that brought a halt to fighting on the Korean Peninsula 70 years ago this summer.
拜登常说俄罗斯已经战败。但这七大民主国家的深切担忧在于，除非反攻取得巨大成功，否则乌克兰将陷入一场血腥而持久的冲突，最好的结局签订停火协议，就和70年前那个夏天朝鲜半岛的停战协议一样。3月，乌克兰士兵向巴赫穆特附近的俄罗斯步兵阵地开火。乌战将成为此次七国峰会的主要议题。 Daniel Berehulak/The New York Times
Such a confrontation seemed almost impossible to imagine in 1997, when President Bill Clinton and Prime Minister Tony Blair of Britain invited Russia to become a full member of the group, expanding it — for nearly two decades — into the G8. Russia was “suspended” after its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and it withdrew from the group three years later.
这样的对抗在1997年几乎是不可想象的，当时克林顿总统与英国首相布莱尔邀请俄罗斯正式加入该集团，将其扩展为八国集团，并持续近20年之久。2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后被“暂停”参与集团活动，三年后又退出了该组织。

Now, with his troops already seeking to destroy Russian weapons depots ahead of the counteroffensive, Mr. Zelensky just completed a series of rapid-fire visits to European capitals to shore up support for continued heavy spending on armaments and aid. He is expected to address the leaders in Hiroshima virtually, but there have been behind-the-scenes conversations about whether to take the risk of bringing him personally to the other side of the world to make his case.
现在，乌军已经准备在反攻之前摧毁俄罗斯武器库，为了让巨额军备及援助支出继续获得支持，泽连斯基刚刚结束对欧洲多国首都的一系列闪电访问。预计他将对广岛的领导人发表线上讲话，但幕后一直都有他是否要冒险亲自来到世界另一端进行游说的讨论。
Either way, he will have a large audience. In addition to India, the leaders of Australia, South Korea, Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam will all be present as guests. It is part of a broader strategy by Mr. Biden and his allies to draw in nations that, to varying degrees, have been fence sitters on the Ukraine war, refusing to condemn Russia too harshly, to enthusiastically enforce sanctions, or to supply weapons to Ukraine.
不管来不来现场，他都会拥有很多听众。除了印度，澳大利亚、韩国、巴西、印尼和越南的领导人都将作为嘉宾出席会议。这是拜登及其盟友所采取的更广泛战略的一部分，目的是拉拢在不同程度上对乌战持观望态度、拒绝过于严厉谴责俄罗斯、对制裁缺乏积极性或不愿为乌克兰提供武器的国家。
Some of the core members are seeking to arm Mr. Zelensky in ways that may outpace Mr. Biden’s willingness. When he was in Britain, Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, embraced Mr. Zelensky in a bear hug and told reporters, “They need the sustained support of the international community to defend against the barrage of unrelenting and indiscriminate attacks that have been their daily reality for over a year. We must not let them down.”
一些核心成员国准备为泽连斯基提供的武力支援可能超出拜登的意愿。泽连斯基访问英国时，首相苏纳克紧紧拥抱了他，并向记者表示，“他们需要国际社会的持续支持，以抵御无休止的无情与肆意的攻击，这是他们一年多来每天都要面临的现实。我们决不能让他们失望。”
Britain and the Netherlands have been pressing Washington to allow Ukraine to begin training on the use of F-16 fighter jets. But just as Mr. Biden was at first reluctant to turn over HIMARS and Patriot missile batteries and other technologies, he has been cautious about the F-16, a plane that could easily reach, and hit, the Kremlin.
英国与荷兰一直在向美国施压，要求允许乌克兰开始用F-16战斗机进行训练。但就和起初不愿交出“海马斯”和“爱国者”导弹系统和其他技术一样，拜登对F-16的使用也一直非常谨慎，这种飞机可以轻松抵达克里姆林宫，并对其进行打击。英国一直在敦促美国向乌克兰提供F-16战斗机。 Remko de Waal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
So the United States seems likely to argue in Hiroshima that the fighter jets, while symbolically impressive, would be so expensive that they would come at the price of sending far more useful, inexpensive systems, including the air defenses that have proven surprisingly successful in taking down incoming Russian missiles. The apparent damage of at least part of a new Patriot missile battery in Kyiv this week has underscored the fact that such systems are precious.
因此，美国可能会在广岛峰会上提出这些战斗机虽然象征意义重大，但成本太过昂贵，还不如拿出远比其更实用、便宜的作战系统，包括事实已经证明在击落俄罗斯来袭导弹方面效果惊人的防空系统。本周在基辅，一套新的“爱国者”导弹系统至少有部分遭受明显损毁，这凸显出此类系统何其宝贵的事实。
Mr. Biden has consistently been cautious — overcautious in the minds of Mr. Zelensky and some NATO allies — about giving Ukraine weapons that he believes might lead to rapid escalation of the war and renewed threats by the Russian leader, Vladimir V. Putin, to use a tactical nuclear weapon.
对于提供武器给乌克兰，拜登始终持谨慎态度，但在泽连斯基和一些北约盟友看来，他的态度过于谨慎。他认为此举可能导致战争迅速升级，同时还会再次引来俄罗斯领导人普京发出使用战术核武器的威胁。
Britain has just begun giving Ukraine another precision weapon with greater reach than the American-provided HIMARS, a missile system called Storm Shadow. Britain’s foreign secretary, James Cleverly, told reporters in Washington last week that Mr. Putin’s threats of escalation now ring more hollow, and that these “are gateways to which are going to have to pass.”
英国刚开始向乌克兰提供另一种精确制导武器，这种名为“暴风影”的导弹系统射程比美国提供的“海马斯”更远。英国外交大臣克莱弗利上周在华盛顿对记者表示，普京要升级战争的威胁如今听来更像空谈，这些导弹系统“就是（俄罗斯）必须越过的雄关”。
For Mr. Kishida, the host, navigating the nuclear issues will be unusually tricky. The summit will open with a visit by Mr. Biden to the landmark atomic dome, making him the second American president to see the site of the atomic bombing ordered by President Harry S. Truman. (President Obama came in 2016, and Mr. Kishida was one of his guides to the site.)
对东道主岸田文雄来说，应对核问题将会异常棘手。峰会开幕时，拜登将参观“原爆圆顶”这一地标建筑，成为第二位参观原爆地址的美国总统，当时的轰炸命令是由杜鲁门总统下达的。（奥巴马总统于2016年到访，岸田文雄是接待向导之一。）周四，日本首相岸田文雄抵达广岛。 Androniki Christodoulou/Reuters
Like many Japanese political leaders, Mr. Kishida has pressed throughout his career for the gradual elimination of nuclear weapons. But he and other Japanese politicians also concede that Mr. Putin’s threats have made American “extended deterrence” under its nuclear umbrella more vital to Japan’s strategy now than it has been for years.
与许多日本政坛领袖一样，岸田文雄在从政生涯中始终致力于逐步消除核武器的目标。但他和其他日本政界人士也承认，普京的威胁使得美国核保护伞的“延伸威慑”对日本的战略重要性达到了多年来的最高水平。
G7 officials will also be grappling with the downward spiral in relations between China and the United States. Mr. Sullivan, the national security adviser, spent two days in Vienna last week with Wang Yi, China’s top foreign affairs official, in what was widely described as an effort to get communications going again after the U.S. decision to shoot down a Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina.
七国集团官员还要努力解决中美关系螺旋式下降的问题。国家安全顾问沙利文上周在维也纳与中国最高外交事务官员王毅举行了两天会晤，外界普遍认为，这是在美国决定在南卡罗来纳州海岸击落中国侦查气球后，两国为恢复交流所做的努力。
Officials have said little about the meeting, but it appears that China told Mr. Sullivan they are open again to visits from Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and, ultimately, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken.
双方没有透露两人会晤的太多细节，但中方似乎向沙利文表示，他们愿再度欢迎商务部长雷蒙多、财政部长耶伦以及国务卿布林肯来华访问。
Mr. Biden, who on Tuesday canceled additional stops on this trip in Papua New Guinea and Australia so he can return on Sunday to the United States to deal with debt ceiling negotiations, said on Wednesday he was trying to meet again with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping. That is a sign that the freeze in relations in recent months may be beginning to let up, even if the fundamental dynamic between the United States and China, a growing nuclear power, has yet to change.
拜登周二取消了在巴布亚新几内亚和澳大利亚的额外行程，以便在周日赶回美国处理债务上限的谈判。他周三表示，自己正寻求与中国领导人习近平再次会面。这一信号表明，近来两国的冻结关系可能开始松动，但美国与中国这个日益壮大的核武大国之间的基本态势尚未改变。

David E. Sanger是白宫和国家安全记者。他在时报任职38年，参与的三个团队获得了普利策奖，最近一次是在2017年获得国际报道奖。他最新出版的一本书是《完美武器：网络时代的战争、破坏和恐惧》(The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age)  。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。

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纳闻|真实新闻与历史–「中英」G7峰会开幕：聚焦乌克兰、中美关系和AI